Satsight / SSC-RN-2026-018

Satsight · Market Note Published 2 Nov 2026 · ID SSC-RN-2026-018 · Satscryption, Digital Assets practice

Defend par, launch at a discount: Bitcoin-treasury preferreds become a market of their own

Strategy now spends cash every week to hold STRC near $100, while three new series in the sector have come to market below their stated amount. Those two moves, and who is buying, are what turn a single issuer's funding tool into a market.

SJ Sadiq Jaffer · figures point-in-time as of 30 Oct 2026

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What you need to know

A year ago, "bitcoin-treasury preferred" meant Strategy. By the end of October 2026 it meant at least six issuers in four jurisdictions, priced in dollars, sterling, yen and kronor, paying monthly, weekly or daily. Two behaviours now define the market. The incumbent defends par: Strategy has bought back 20,980,508 STRC shares this year for about $2.04B, an average of $97.39 against the $100 stated amount, and in the week to 25 Oct it spent another $204.9M of USD Cash doing it. Three newcomers launched at a discount: Strive sold its 15.00% SATS at $90 on a $100 stated amount, Smarter Web sold its 12% MORE at £90 on £100, and Metaplanet placed its 4.9% MERCURY at ¥900 on ¥1,000.

Par defence is paid for in cash that is running down. Strategy's USD Cash, the pot that funds STRC buybacks (the separate USD Reserve is reserved for dividends and interest), fell from $1.44B on 7 Sep to $242.4M on 25 Oct. The question for the next quarter is not whether STRC can be held near $100 but what funds the holding once that cash is gone: common-stock sales, bitcoin sales, or a lower bid.

Key findings

Par is defended with buybacks, not just the dividend rate. Strategy's five weekly 8-Ks from 21 Sep to 25 Oct show 9,247,716 STRC repurchased for $918.4M (derived sum of the weekly figures), at implied averages between about $98.86 and $99.60 a share (derived). The STRC rate was held at 12.00% throughout.
Three new series have launched below their stated amount. SATS at $90 on $100 at 15.00% (16.7% running yield at issue, derived); MORE at £90 on £100 at 12% (13.3%, derived); MERCURY at ¥900 on ¥1,000 at 4.9% (5.44%, derived). The discount is the price of being new; the issuers then lean on reserves and ATMs to close it.
Payment cadence has become a product feature. STRC moved to daily record dates from 1 Nov 2026 and STRF, STRK and STRD follow from 1 Jan 2027; the first daily STRC payment is scheduled for 2 Nov. Strive's SATS pays every business day from 9 Nov, MORE pays weekly, and BTC AB's Preference A pays monthly.
The market is no longer American. Sterling (MORE on the LSE Main Market), yen (MERCURY, privately placed, TSE listing consultation under way), kronor (BTC PREF A on Spotlight) and a proposed US junior preferred tied to Metaplanet's Superplanet deal now sit beside Strategy's five series.
Buyers are starting to be other bitcoin-treasury vehicles and funds. Strive holds 505,000 STRC; a B3-listed ETF (DIGY11) tracks a bitcoin-treasury preferred index; Capital Research reports 5,902,500 MERCURY shares, about 25.0% of the class (derived).
MSCI is an open question for the common, not yet for the preferred. MSCI will apply its non-operating-company screen at the November 2026 review, with the final list due on 11 Nov; its potentially-impacted list marks Strategy and Metaplanet as possible deletions. Whether index providers end up treating bitcoin-treasury companies as a separate group is not settled, and this note does not take a view until MSCI publishes.

Recommendations

Analytical practice for credit, treasury and risk desks; not investment advice:

Credit and fixed-income desks: track Strategy's weekly USD Cash line alongside the STRC price. The buyback source, not the rate, is the leading indicator for par.
Allocators considering new series: treat the launch discount as a liquidity premium that the issuer intends to close; check the dividend reserve (SATS) or ATM overhang (MORE) before relying on it closing.
Index and passive-product teams: model the November MSCI decision separately for common and preferred lines; do not assume a common-stock deletion carries over to preferred demand.
Issuers planning a first preferred: three of the recent launches (SATS, MORE, MERCURY) priced at 90% of stated amount (derived), so plan for a possible discount and for needing a visible reserve or buyback policy; Strategy's par policy is now the benchmark investors compare against.
Risk teams holding several series: the buyer base increasingly overlaps (treasury companies holding each other's preferreds, ETFs holding the same names); treat them as one correlated exposure.
Everyone: separate what is filed from what is announced. Several items below (the Superplanet closing, Smarter Web's ATM sales since 22 Oct, Strategy's quarter-end STRC count) are not yet in a filing.

Strategic planning assumptions

Satscryption's analytical framing of observable triggers — not measured data, forecasts or guarantees.

Confidence levels for these planning assumptions are not yet rated (left blank deliberately for this edition).

SPA 1 — Discount launches become the norm. If the next two new bitcoin-treasury preferred series also price below their stated amount, as SATS, MORE and MERCURY did, then a launch discount is the market's entry price rather than an issuer-specific weakness. Confidence: not yet rated.
SPA 2 — Cadence competition continues. If any further issuer moves to daily or business-day dividends within two quarters of Strategy's 1 Nov switch, then payment frequency is being competed on, and monthly-pay series will need a higher rate or a lower price to compete. Confidence: not yet rated.
SPA 3 — Par defence moves onto common or bitcoin. If STRC buybacks continue at October's weekly pace after USD Cash is used up, then par defence becomes a direct call on MSTR issuance or bitcoin sales. The Q3 release already attributes $108.6M of Q3 STRC buybacks to bitcoin-sale proceeds. Confidence: not yet rated.
SPA 4 — Non-US listings follow placements. If Metaplanet obtains a TSE listing for MERCURY, or Smarter Web's MORE ATM shows sustained sales, then the non-US preferred lines move from placements into continuously traded markets. Confidence: not yet rated.
SPA 5 (low weight) — Derivatives on treasury metrics. If listed KPI-linked contracts of the kind the SEC approved for Cboe in October are extended to bitcoin-treasury issuers, then preferred holders gain a way to hedge reported holdings. Kept in at low weight; no bitcoin-treasury issuer is eligible today. Confidence: not yet rated.

Get the full note

The complete 10-page note: nine analysis sections, the 20-item evidence table, and the full source notes with links to every filing cited.

Analysis — From one engine to a market
Analysis — The terms, side by side
Analysis — Defend par
Analysis — Paying for par
Analysis — Outside the US
Analysis — Who buys
Analysis — MSCI: an open question
Analysis — What changed since SSC-RN-2026-015 and SSC-RN-2026-017
Analysis — The counter-case
Evidence — 20 dated, source-traced facts
Acronyms and full sourcing

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About this note. Research commentary, published for information only. Not investment advice; no recommendation of any kind to buy, sell, hold or consider any security or asset. The publisher is not FCA-authorised; nothing here is a financial promotion, forecast, price target or valuation opinion. All figures trace to the primary sources cited; items marked "derived" are arithmetic on disclosed figures, items marked "inference" are our reading where no filing yet exists, and company claims are labelled as such. Capital at risk.